Thank you Chris for getting this kicked off. Prior to starting this debate, I had a chance to review some of your work over at The League of Ordinary Gentlemen blog. And I must commend you and your co-bloggers for generally staying true to your moniker. (The “Gentleman” part, not the “Ordinary”). You run a very thought-provoking site with a respectful tone towards your audience and commenters. Which is a relative rarity in the blogging arena – so kudos. And on to the debate!

I guess I have to open by saying that it seems it would not be all that unreasonable for me to declare victory on the basis of your opening statement alone. For if the primary subject of this debate is whether Sarah Palin’s resignation will end, or even just be detrimental, to her political career, it seems we may be generally in agreement. I am referring of course to the fact that you seem to have readily conceded that she will continue to be a major factor in conservative politics moving forward, and in fact go so far as to say that you could see her “making a serious run (maybe even winning) the GOP nomination”. (Granted, you qualified this statement by saying “with luck” you could see her doing so).

Of course you also seem to indicate by your statements that you personally feel she is unqualified for office at a national level. While you are certainly entitled to hold this opinion, and are one of many who do so, I would like to take issue with a couple of the statements you made in relation to this.

In particular, I take exception to your statement that the “demographic population of [Palin's] base is shrinking”. Recent poll results indicate that this is clearly not the case. For example, there is this recent analysis of poll results in Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin which demonstrates that there has been a significant upswing in conservatism in these states over the past 2 years. I think this sampling is very significant as these are all states which Obama handily won, yet also represent the type of middle America sort of states where Palin is likely to have the broadest appeal.  And furthermore, at a national level this Gallup poll from just last month clearly demonstrates that far from being on the wane, the self-identification of voters as “conservative” is in the midst of a significant upswing. A trend which I think will only be accelerated by the failed policies and massive deficit spending of the Obama Administration.

I also think you greatly overstate the impact Palin’s various personal “scandals” have had on the broader electorate’s perception of her. To a large extent these scandals have been generated and/or perpetuated by the tabloid-like media focus on her and her family. A reader need look no further than your comment that Palin was “picking fights with David Letterman” to pick up on the biased angle in which you have personally evaluated these events. Letterman was completely out of order in his comments about Palin’s daughter, and what mother of any decency would not take issue with this…much less a public figure of Palin’s stature. Frankly, I find it somewhere between surprising and disappointing that you seem to have adopted the most stridently liberal interpretation of these types of issues surrounding Palin. (Although far from the blatantly dishonest and insane level of fixation that someone like Andrew Sullivan has demonstrated). I am confident that the average non-partisan, American voter has a far more balanced impression of Palin, and sees most of these faux-controversies as the tabloid fodder they are.

(I believe recent poll data from after Palin’s resignation was announced corroborates this claim, but in the interest of moving this discussion along I will save a look at this for a future post.)

Let me quickly run through what I think is the most significant point regarding Palin’s resignation, and the impact it will have on her career going forward. First of all, I do not believe stepping down as Governor of AK was a calculated move on her part to further her political career. However, as I noted in my post on this topic at Verum Serum, I do think that her resignation will ultimately prove to have been a good move towards this end. (If a national political career of some sort is her objective, which certainly seems to be the case.) The reason is simple. The dynamics of national level politics are changing rapidly, with the concentration of power, influence, and money shifting from national party structures to focused, popularity-based campaigns centered around individual candidates and issues-based groups. (I called this the “era of politician as celebrity” on my blog). The proliferation of internet access/usage and the advent of social networking tools such as Facebook, Twitter, etc. has hastened this along, and frankly I think we are still in the relatively early stages of this revolution. In other words, the success of the Obama campaign was only a preview of the impact this celebrity-based approach and use of internet technology will have going forward.

Sticking around governing the State of AK (which most in the Lower 48 pay no attention to), while dealing with an endless stream of frivolous ethical complaints, and unfair personal attacks on her and her family, would have afforded Palin very little time and energy to further advance her agenda and base of support amongst a broader national audience. While personally I think it may be best for her to get out of the spotlight for a while, and remove herself from the line of fire (including “friendly” fire), she will now have plenty of time to regain the enthusiasm and sense of purpose which attracted so many to her to begin with. And in the process I believe she can get a head start on leveraging all the new media technologies to expound on her vision/agenda and expand her base of support.

I am in full agreement with Chris that it will be key for Palin to do so in order to be a serious candidate for national office in 2012…or 2016. However, as noted above, we seem to have some serious disagreements about the challenges she may face in the process. But what fun would a debate be without some disagreement? Personally, I think Sarah Palin has an incredible future ahead of her. She is a rare talent who possesses the combination of character and ability necessary to inspire and garner support amongst a diverse group of Americans. And there is no question that if it’s her desire to do so, she will be a significant factor in conservative politics and the movement at large going forward.